A recent New York Times article has been making the rounds this week, showcasing “new opportunities” for authors looking to self-publish. As I read it I couldn’t help but reflect on the disruptive changes in technology and consumer behavior that created this predicament for the major book publishers. However, something in my gut tells me that we’ve seen all this before. What do you think?

Let’s consider the scenario:

Publishers are struggling. Their profits are dropping, they’re laying off staff, and they’re accepting and investing less in new talent. Due to the global reach of the Internet, brick and mortar stores are no longer bringing in foot traffic, forcing many retail partners to close shop. The future of traditional publishing is looking grim as the older established channels of mass manufacturing and distribution show themselves to be inflexible, inefficient and costly. Worse yet, a whole new industry of POD competitors is capturing the limelight.

Even more concerning is the fact that enterprising businessmen and talented individuals now have the opportunity to take advantage of publishing, manufacturing, marketing and ecommerce technologies at a very low startup cost. In effect, they can “be their own publisher”–circumventing the entire traditional publishing industry on their way to publishing success (or at least an attempt at success).

Making things worse for the big publishers is that these new technologies have allowed a tremendous wave of new talent and titles to enter the marketplace, creating more choice for the consumer. It gives the potential buyer an opportunity to taste and appreciate “independent” content that until recently would not have been available to them to find, much less buy. Some content is even given away for free! The consumer obviously likes it because many small volume niche markets are thriving. The press has also jumped on board, tagging this environment as a “Renaissance” in creator-to-consumer publishing.

However, this new world of publishing–as exciting and euphoric as it may be–won’t help the large traditional publisher. Niche publishing doesn’t mesh with their high-volume, mass-market, low tech business model, and it leaves them unprepared for this massive shift in consumer behavior. No matter how you cut it, fewer buyers per released title will make their revenue go down and force their costs to go up.

But is all hope lost? Surely not, especially since the big publishers still have the “brand” talent that many consumers are drawn to. The truth is that for the most part this new publishing model is a haven for second tier, low-talented “wannabes.”  Recent data indicates, however, that some of these wannabes are making money and reaching mass appeal–in fact a few are making more money being “independent” than they would if they had signed on with a major publisher. This disconcerting news is rapidly reaching inside the trusted circles of the industry and is causing quite a bit of turmoil. Big name publishing properties are witnessing this paradigm shift, and they’re now asking for more rights and control. If the publishers don’t bend the talent will leave as soon as their contract comes up for renegotiation.

And that’s not even the scariest part. Apple is now building a marketplace with technology that allows consumers to purchase and download music directly to their iPods. If this happens they’ll have the talent, the marketplace, the consumer, and the device. Apple says they won’t negotiate on terms. What’s a major music publisher to do?

Yes, that was the situation ten years ago with music, and it’s where we’re at today with books. Feature films are next on the list. It’s really nothing new, nor is it the “revelation” as the NYT represents it. Music labels, book publishers, musical artists, book authors, music stores, bookstores, CDs, books, downloads, ebooks, Apple, Amazon, Lulu, iPOD, Kindle–just search and replace where appropriate.

Technology will continue to overcome the limitations of the physical world–in terms of capability and opportunity–for creators everywhere. This time around, it’s the authors that are the beneficiaries. It’s about time–don’t you agree?

Henry

Henry Hutton

PublishandSell.com